Tuesday, August 8, 2017

Extrapolation

If you accept the theory that the Human race has evolved, then one of the reasons for our progress has been the ability of intelligent humans to extrapolate - to use a set of facts from one situation to make assumptions in another.  In some circles, this is referred to as a SWAG - scientific, wild-ass guess - but it, rather than necessity may well be the mother of invention.
Unfortunately, successful extrapolation requires a mindset that is not available to many, and this often leads to wildly erroneous conclusions.  We see this all the time in politics, where two intelligent individuals will draw totally different  conclusions from the same set of facts.
If, for example, we accept that 
A. Cowboys like their eggs over easy, and
B. Jockeys prefer theirs scrambled,
we might correctly conclude that
C. Some riders like eggs. 
But - if we assume that everyone who ever straddled a horse eats eggs, that would be erroneous. 
Even worse, in today's environment, some scientific group or some  news organization will use that same set of  facts to publish a headline saying "CHICKENS ARE THREATENED WITH EXTINCTION BY EQUESTRIANS!"

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