The Danger of Prediction

It has been about a year – OK, closer to 13 months – since I began saying a major earthquake would hit California soon. 

So far, it hasn’t happened, but I’m sticking by my prediction.  After all, history tells us that it will happen eventually, and the longer I am wrong, the closer I come to being right.

I think I should be congratulated on my bravery for continuing to cry wolf – especially in light of what’s happening in Italy.

This past week, a court in L’Aquila, Italy, convicted seven men -  six scientists and a public official - of manslaughter, and sentenced them to six years in prison.  Their crime – failure to accurately predict an earthquake that killed 309 people in central Italy back in 2009.

In L’Aquila, the scientists presented a risk assessment in late March 2009 after small seismic events made the public anxious. They found that a major quake was unlikely. Then on April 6, a 6.3-magnitude earthquake devastated the area.  In addition to the 300 plus death toll, the quake injured an additional 1,500 or so and left more than 65,000 people homeless in and around the city of L’Aquila.

The city is in an area where earthquakes had been recorded since 1315. They had a another big one back in 1703. L’Aquila is built on the bed of a dry lake, so the soil tends to amplify the motions of the ground.

These facts, however, do not alter the truth of the scientists’ claim that earthquakes in the area are extremely rare.

Several members of Italy’s National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks resigned Tuesday after the conviction. Luciano Maiani, a physicist, resigned as president of the commission, saying  “The commission can’t carry out its functions in this situation, which borders on intimidation.  It’s impossible to work with serenity if you’re afraid that if you give an opinion that turns out not to be right you can be punished.”