Tomorrow is Super Bowl Sunday, but it’s also Groundhog Day. Hard to say which one is less important in the over-all scheme of things.
Let’s be honest – in spite of the hype, neither one is going to seriously impact our daily lives unless we let it. Unless you are an NFL owner, player or coach – or a member of the Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, Chamber of Commerce – all of the emotion attached to either event is artificial.
Sports handicapping and weather prediction both fall into the same category of pseudo-science. Meteorologists may spend years studying their craft, but even with satellite imagery and computer modeling the best of their predictions are still a SWAG (scientific wild-ass guess) and they are considered successful if they are right 50% of the time.
Take this year for example: The Old Farmer’s Almanac had predicted a warmer than normal winter for 2014 – how’s that going for you so far?
If you live in Southern California, that prediction is dead on – anywhere else, not so much.
Here in the Houston area, the historical average temperature range for January has a high of 63° and a low of 45° Fahrenheit. Last month, over half (16 of 31) days had above average highs.
In spite of that, if it seemed colder than usual, it’s because it was. Only two days last month had highs over 10 degrees above average, while just the last two weeks had five days with lows over 15 degrees below normal.
Based upon nothing in particular, here are my predictions for tomorrow -
The groundhog will see his shadow and we’ll have winter around at least until the Rodeo Parade.
Denver will win the game by a touchdown or less.
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